World Energy Council Reveals Report on Global Transport Scenarios 2050

World Energy Council revealed on Thursday, at the 20th World Petroleum Congress in Doha, a report on "Global Transport Scenarios 2050" which highlights the role of governments in providing a sustainable future for the global transportation sector. The World Energy Council (WEC) expects that transport fuel demand in the next forty years will come mainly from developing countries such as China and India, where demand will grow by 200% to 300%. In contrast, the Council also expects that the transport fuel demand for the developed countries will drop by up to 20%, mainly due to increased efficiencies. The demand of the developing countries is expected to surpass that of the developed countries by the year 2025. It is also expected to use the continuity of petroleum to run 80% of the means of global transport throughout the next forty years, due to strong growth in demand from the sectors of heavy freight, and aviation. Experts believe that, by 2050, will increase global demand for transportation fuel types for up to rates rising from the requirements in 2010 at a rate ranging between 30 to 82%. And describe the results of this study, which lasted a whole year and likely developments in the global transportation fuel and technical regulations through the two-track "highway" and "through tariff charges." Imagine a scenario as "highway" the world as a place ruled by the routers create a climate open to international competition and offer solutions driven by the private sector and reduce costs. The scenario "through tariff charges" describes a more structured, where the government decides to intervene in markets to strengthen the technical solutions and infrastructure development that put the public good in the lead. "The Freeway and Tollway scenarios describe two extreme ends of the potential future of transport. The reality will inevitably be between these two scenarios with regional differences playing a major role," said Prof. Karl Rose, Director of Policy and Scenarios at the World Energy Council. "It is, however, evident that the transport sector is about to go through a radical change. The light duty vehicle sector in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries will be almost completely transformed in terms of fuel mix and we will see a pronounced shift of demand for transport fuels to the developing countries," he said. The effect of the penetration of new technologies seems to be less profound than many have predicted, mainly due to the exceptional growth in heavy transport demand," Prof. Rose added. For his part, Dr. Ayed Al-Qahtani, WEC Senior Project Manager of the 'Global Transport Scenarios 2050' project team said "By 2050, the demand for these three fuels could increase by between 10% and 68%; diesel alone will grow by between 46% and 200%, while jet fuel will grow by 200% to 300%. This has potentially significant implications for refiners and the downstream sector as a whole, especially in Europe which traditionally has a larger focus on diesel fuels." The consequences for the environment are significant. In 2010, the CO2 emissions from the transport sector were about 23% of global CO2 emission levels and emissions from cars were about 41% of total transport emissions. With the higher levels of transport demand in 2050, depending on the fuel mix, total CO2  emissions from the transportation sector are expected to increase between 16% (Tollway) and 79% (Freeway), depending entirely on the degree of governments' intervention in the transport markets and the success in advancing low carbon fuel systems. For his part, Dr. Christoph Frei, Secretary General of the World Energy Council said "Today, the overall transport sector represents a quarter of total CO2 emissions. Our scenarios show that CO2 emissions from transport could be 79% higher in 2050. However, with clear policies that empower governments, the public and private sector to intervene, we could limit this increase to 16%. In order to limit such a significant increase, we must act now". WEC concludes the biggest challenge is for governments to provide sustainable transport for nine billion people in 2050, and to do that at the lowest possible social cost, i.e. minimum possible congestion, pollution, and noise generated by additional traffic and freight volumes. Commenting on the report, Pierre Gadonneix, Chairman of the World Energy Council said "The World Energy Council proposes scenarios for transportation as a basis for a constructive dialogue between national and local policy makers, manufacturers, consumers and producers." "It is clear that emerging economies will contribute the most to the development of our future transport needs, with their fast growing population and rapid economic development. However, developed countries have advanced transport systems that currently rely heavily on traditional sources. To ensure a sustainable transport future, and in a time of major uncertainties, there is no other choice but promote a diversified "resilient" energy mix." said Gadonneix "Only with strong leadership at both government and enterprise levels can a positive contribution be made towards a radical shift in our transportation systems and the well-being of future generations" he added. The report is the culmination of over a year's collaborative effort between a core team in WEC, 54 global transport and energy experts in 29 countries, two project partners, IBM Corporation and Paul Scherrer Institute, and the WEC member network.