1 year out, tumult dominates wide open US 2016

Americans elect a new president one year from Sunday, with the names Clinton, Trump, Carson and Bush at the fore. The race is wide open, with Democrats seeking a historic treble and Republicans suffering an identity crisis.
As the country gears up for a 12-month campaign slog -- starting with a dash to the first statewide primary contests in February -- concern has risen over Mideast violence and police-citizen tensions at home, and debate swirls over immigration, guns and income inequality.

Amid the tumult, voters are demanding stronger economic gains than those made during the recovery from the great recession of 2007 and 2008.

Venting their frustration with Washington, core Republicans have embraced non-politicians like real estate tycoon Donald Trump and doctor Ben Carson, moves that some worry might threaten party efforts to reclaim the White House after eight years of Barack Obama.

And voters across the political spectrum are debating whether to push the button on a political reset, or return either the Bush or Clinton dynasties to the throne.

US voters have long elevated outsiders at the start of the tedious primary process, including NATO commander general Wesley Clark in the 2004 cycle, New York mayor Rudy Giuliani in 2008, and former Godfather's Pizza chief executive Herman Cain in 2012.
While that trend appears particularly acute this year, 365 days is an eternity in politics and it remains too early to convincingly assess the likelihood of a Trump or Carson presidency, experts say.

"The national polls especially are a function of name recognition, and if you don't believe me you can ask 'President Giuliani' and all the other poll frontrunners whose campaigns never won them the nomination," Brendan Nyhan, assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College, told AFP.

But neophyte staying power has been the most interesting factor of the 2016 race to date, according to Republican strategist Brian McClung, who consulted for Tim Pawlenty's 2012 presidential campaign.

- Can outsiders prevail? -

With the resilience of this year's outsiders, McClung said, the question becomes: "Will the more establishment candidate be able to galvanize enough support to win as they have in the past, or is this the year that it tips over to the anti-establishment side?"
The months-old Republican campaign, still stacked with 15 candidates, has often carried a circus atmosphere.

Ten at a time have clashed on stage in rough-and-tumble debates, and a headliner like Trump with his propensity to savage rivals on social media and at campaign rallies, may not be helping Republicans, according to analysts.

The party engaged in soul searching after its 2012 presidential defeat. It recommended a pared down debate schedule and an expansion of GOP appeal beyond its conservative base by reaching out to women and minorities and by championing comprehensive immigration reform.

But after a bipartisan push for immigration reform failed in Congress, Republican hopefuls have turned their backs on the immigration recommendation, with candidates like Trump threatening to deport the 11 million people living in the shadows illegally.

And Trump has infuriated Hispanics -- an increasingly important US voting bloc -- by labeling some Mexican immigrants rapists.
Party strategists agree that Republicans will need a transformational candidate who can broaden the GOP appeal. But who that is remains an open question.

Jeb Bush, the son and brother of two presidents, has been unable to break from the middle of the pack, with many observers arguing he was bested by his former political apprentice, Senator Marco Rubio, when they clashed in last week's debate.

Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton meanwhile is riding high, as Democrats appear to be coalescing around her candidacy.

She has opened a 22-point lead over self-described democratic socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, and surpassed 50 percent support in a RealClearPolitics poll average after testifying before Congress last month on her role in handling the deadly attacks on Americans in Benghazi, Libya.
As attention narrows towards early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire, voters will begin focusing more carefully on the candidates' policy prescriptions for repelling Islamic State extremists, boosting job growth and raising or lowering taxes.

But unlike 2004's main subject of terrorism, or 2008 and the economic crisis, the 2016 campaign's issues remain unsettled, McClung said.

"Fifteen years after 9/11, and six years post-great-recession, we're in this zone where there's no clear top one or two issues," he said.

While establishment Republicans struggle to connect with conservative voters, polls are anything but predictive so early in the primary process, cautioned professor Christopher Wlezien at the University of Texas at Austin, who has studied each general election back to 1952.

Essentially, he said, "you know nothing entering the election year."

Source: AFP