Despite referendum win, challenges still ahead for Erdogan

After the crucial referendum and the slim majority for presidential system, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing some important challenges ranging from foreign policy, the Kurdish issue to the struggling economy.
The president, now holding extensive powers, has to prove that he is capable of bringing stability to his country as he promised, according to local experts.
The Turks voted "yes" on April 16 to proposed changes, which is a transition from a parliamentary model of government to a presidential system, with a limited set of checks and balances among the governing authorities. The referendum paved the way for an Erdogan era that could last until 2029.
It was staunchly promoted by Erdogan but many in Turkey and Europe believe that the change in system grants the president too much power.
The opposition rejected the outcome of the vote accusing the high electoral board (YSK) of irregularities. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) said Wednesday it was considering taking its appeal for the referendum to be annulled to Turkey's constitutional court or the European court of human rights after the YSK rejected all the challenges.
Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag rejected such a move saying that the European court "has no other option than to reject it." He also reiterated government criticism of a report by European election observers, who said the vote, carried out under emergency rule, took place in an "unlevel playing field."
"This criticism of European institutions is in fact a continuation of the anti-European rhetoric that we saw being used by the president and the government during the referendum campaign," said Sinan Ulgen, president of the Istanbul thinktank Edam.
According to this former Turkish diplomat, Erdogan will try to seek a new era in relation with the European Union who took a serious blow after the failed coup of last July and Erdogan's repeated announcements that he supported the reinstatement of the death penalty.
"I believe that Erdogan will be heading towards a new partnership with Europe by abandoning the political association in favor of economic and trade ties, making it a purely business type relationship," he said.
EU-Turkey accession negotiations actually stalled because of some opposition to a full membership of the Muslim and NATO ally, an argument that Erdogan extensively used during the campaign to rally the nationalistic vote, labeling the West in general, as enemies of Turkey.
"Relations with the EU are a traditional and strategic pillar of the Turkish foreign policy and the EU is our main trade partner. There are serious challenges ahead," added Sinan Ulgen.
One other challenge is the Kurdish issue. Experts are asking questions on Erdogan's next objectives and what specific issues will he choose to promote.
While serving as Prime Minister, in unprecedented fashion, Erdogan chose to promote the peace process with the Kurds. However, he abandoned the peace process when he perceived the regional strengthening of the Kurds threatening Turkey's domestic arena.
Since 2016, the cooperation between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement party (MHP) has not been as fruitful as expected, in the sense that it did not achieve broader support in the "yes" camp for the referendum.
With the referendum over, it appears that the importance of this alliance has diminished and therefore, its unraveling could play a part in a possible resumption of the peace process.
"Altogether 13 of our MP's including our chiefs are actually in prison for links with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), how can we think that there are better times ahead," said Fatma Kurtulan, vice president of the main pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), hoping that "pression and intimidations" against Kurdish politicians cease immediately.
"Maybe we can discuss again ways to relaunch a peace process but this is all in the hands of a single man now," argued Kurtulan who clearly underlined her pessimism of any return to a peace process.
The process which was into effect for several years was brutally severed in 2015 after a series of attacks blamed by Turkish authorities to the PKK and affiliated organizations.
Moreover, dozens of mayors and politicians with the Kurdish population of the southeast provinces have been jailed in a vast crackdown following the coup of the same year.
"The Kurdish issue is always high on our agenda, the PKK has been rendered ineffective by security operations since last year. Now that the referendum process is over, the reconstruction of (Kurdish) towns will be speeded up," said an official from the AKP, preferring to remain anonymous.
Some of the main constitutional changes will go into effect in 2019, when the parliament will lose important powers and the office of prime minister will be scrapped. Under the new system, the president will be able to rule by decree, control the budget, appoint ministers and judges and rejoin his political party, the governing AKP.
In recent days, protests have erupted in big cities such as Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir, the economic heartland of Turkey, amid allegations of widespread fraud.
According to experts, the AKP still enjoys a strong support base but opposition parties see an opportunity to chip away at Erdogan's legitimacy by inciting their supporters to take the streets to protest.
The narrow victory could possibly lead to snap elections, because Erdogan would not want to wait until 2019 to extend all of his political mandate, even though he and his Prime Minister Binali Yildirm have rule out such an event.
Soner Cagaptay, the director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute told on his website that elections were now a sure thing in Turkey.
"His wings are clipped with such a thin majority, allegations of fraud, and vote fixing that I'm sure he will go towards early elections," Cagaptay said.
Another major challenge for Ankara lies in the Syrian crisis.
In Syria, Turkey is stuck between the U.S. and Russia. It failed to form a string alliance with the new U.S. administration and convince Donald Trump to support Turkey's interest in the region. Both Moscow and Washington are supporting PKK-affiliated Kurdish groups there in the fight against the Islamic State (IS).
Erdogan is scheduled to have a first tete-a-tete with the U.S. president from May 16 to 17 in Washington ahead of a NATO summit, and to convince Trump's administration for a strategy in Syria more in line with Ankara's interests.
Trump was the first main western country leader to congratulate Erdogan for his referendum victory, his eleventh straight one in the polls since 2002, first as prime minister and now as president.
"We have been deceived by the Obama administration in Syria, let's hope this doesn't repeat with the new administration," Erdogan told during a televised interview on Tuesday evening.
Ankara is also pressing for the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim cleric living for more than 17 years in the U.S. who is accused by Turkey of engineering the failed coup.
On the economy front a great deal has put into hold these last month because of the political campaign and analysts think it's high time to return to business.
The rating agency Fitch said the victory for Erdogan could spur the government to move ahead with growth-boosting fiscal policies and undertake structural reforms.
Fitch noted that the AKP's economic reform program could not be fully implemented in recent years because of the fluid political backdrop and structural weaknesses.
Immediately after the victory, ministers called for determination to go ahead with much needed structural reforms.
"The economy will be the top agenda for Turkey's political scene. We will discuss fresh measures to maintain economic growth in 2017 and 2018," said Finance Minister Naci Agbal on Tuesday.
Figures after the referendum show nevertheless that Turkey's economic woes are there. The unemployment rate hit a seven-year high of 13 percent in the first quarter of 2017, while the budget deficit jumped to 5.3 billion U.S. dollars in March.
In order to consolidate his country's presence in its region and to secure new partnerships, the dominant Turkish president has planned trips in April and May to two important economic powers, India and China.
But the first thing awaiting Erdogan is to return at the helm of the AKP that he founded in 2002 and presided until his election as president 2014. He will organize a party conference where he will officially resume his role as chairman. A cabinet reshuffle is expected later.

Source: Xinhua