Political analysts: Mubarak verdict upsets run-off balance

Political analysts in Egypt have said the verdict issued on Saturday against former president Hosni Mubarak has upset the voting balance in the second round of the country's presidential elections.This has been further backed by conversations with and discussions among people in the streets of Cairo and social networking sites (such as Facebook and Twitter). Most people have apparently started to reconsider whom to cast their vote for in the run-off, while others have stood by their views. Mubarak and his former interior minister, Habib el-Adly, was sentenced to life in prison on charges of not doing enough to stop the killing of protesters in January last year when the country was swept in an anti-regime uprising. The ousted leader's sons, Alaa and Gamal, were acquitted of corruption charges though they face another trial for alleged insider trading in the Egyptian stock market. The two and Hussein Salem, a wealthy businessman who was reportedly close to Mubarak, were let off due to Egypt's own statute of limitations. Six senior officials who were charged with the protesters' murders were also not convicted for lack of evidence. The verdict had a polarising effect on the masses, with thousands protesting against a judgment they felt was "political" and did not grant justice to the "martyrs of the revolution". Mohamed Hussein, aged 35, said his decision to boycott the second round has not been affected, but his conviction to do so in fact increased after the verdict. "Both candidates are not fit to shoulder the responsibility of leading the country while achieving the revolution's goals and revenge for the martyrs. They are both power-seekers who do not want to serve the people," he said. Dalia Shahine, aged 32, said she was confident the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi, whom she voted for in the first round, would win the race, while the verdict against Mubarak was "weak and shameful". "It's essential not to elect a candidate belonging to the former regime so that the trial may be repeated in a more serious manner and based on stronger evidence," she said.  For her part, Zainab Amin, aged 25, said she will void her vote, although she had earlier decided to vote for Ahmed Shafiq as she was against the Muslim Brotherhood nominee, but she changed her mind after Mubarak was sentenced. Walid Fawzi, aged 31, also decided to boycott the second round and not to vote for Morsi as he as he had earlier intended, while Youssef Mohamed, 56, said Shafiq would face a difficult situation after the verdict, however he would support him with his vote. On the other hand, Essam el-Erian, the deputy head of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political face of the Muslim Brotherhood, said to Arabstoday: “No doubt the sentence issued against Mubarak will benefit the party’s nominee, as he is the one whom most revolutionaries see as belonging to the revolution,” pointing out that “the verdict against Mubarak came at a very important time for the decision of the Egyptian voter”.  Amr Hashem Rabea, the head of the democratic transition programme in the al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies said: “The verdict will increase the chances of success for the Brotherhood's candidate, as he supported the revolutionaries against the former regime.” The political analyst and editor-in-chief of the al-Kahera newspaper said each candidate would try and twist the verdict in their favour, in addition to two (Hamdeen Sabbahy and Amr Moussa) who were ruled out in the first round. "They're trying to revoke the validity of the second round and re-hold the first round...it is too early to know who benefits from this sentence," he said. “Perhaps none of them will benefit, particularly as the Egyptian voter usually surprises us, and no one can predict what they are going to do,” he added. Gihad Ouda, a political science professor at Cairo University and a member of the policies committee of the dissolved National Party said that "a new battle would emerge". He added: “The verdict puts the candidates of the second round to a big test that Shafiq has passed successfully so far, as his position is clearer than his competitor’s whose positions are still vague, undecided and confused to a great extent.” Contrary to this opinion, the head of the International Centre for Future and Strategic Studies Dr Adel Soliman said the verdict had adversely affected Shafiq's standing, because it came as a result of "a lack of strong evidence and appropriate investigations from security agencies which his government's interior minister Mahmoud Wagdy was responsible for". He added: “Shafiq statements reveal the seriousness of the situation after the sentence.”