Iran's nuclear issue escalates, but unlikely into conflict

Iran's nuclear issue has escalated again recently with the West mulling sanctions on Iran's Central Bank and its crude exports, but the seeming saber-rattling on the part of both sides is unlikely to evolve into an imminent conflict. On Dec. 14, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a massive defense bill, which requests new sanctions on Iran, targeting foreign financial institutions that do business with the Islamic republic's central bank. Iran's First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi said Tuesday that if the exports of Iran's oil were hit by sanctioned from the West, "not a drop of oil" would pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Navy Chief Admiral Habibollah Sayari also said Wednesday that Iran would find it "really easy" to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit channel. The comments drew a quick response from the United States. A spokeswoman from the Bahrain-based U.S. Navy 5th Fleet said the Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation." Despite the latest flare-up of tensions, there is little possibility that Iran and the U.S. would rush headlong into war, in view of the current circumstances. U.S. President Barack Obama, with his re-election bid next year on his mind, would try to avoid any war that could become controversial. Iran, on the other hand, is becoming more adept at playing a game of brinkmanship. While sticking to its tough stance on its nuclear program, Tehran has apparently been ready to compromise a bit at the last minute, leaving the door open for further negotiations. It has been almost 10 years since Iran's nuclear issue surfaced in 2003, but neither side has ever crossed the red lines. Iran has maintained its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has never announced plans to develop nuclear weapons. The West, for its part, has not imposed a complete embargo on Iran's crude exports, to say nothing of launching strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. However, intelligence war, cyber war and economic war between the two sides have never subsided. In December, Iran announced that it captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel drone, which shed some light on these "secret warfares" between Iran and the West. Iran's adherence to its nuclear program not only serves the purpose of developing new energy resources but is also in line with its strategic pursuit of expanding its influence in the region. Because of ideological differences and complex ethnic and religious factors, Iran's move is strongly opposed by the West and Israel who deem it a serious threat to them. Gulf Arab states which eye economic and military integration as a first step toward forming a union have also been wary of Iran's influence in the region. In a statement issued at the end of their annual summit on Dec. 20, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council called on Iran to stop meddling in the internal affairs of the group members. "Stop these policies and practices... and stop interfering in the internal affairs" of Gulf nations, it said, expressing concern over Tehran's attempts to "instigate sectarian strife." On Dec. 5, the former Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal, said Saudi Arabia may consider acquiring nuclear weapons to match regional rivals Israel and Iran. On Dec. 24, Iran began a 10-day naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to block if the West slaps sanctions on its oil exports. On Dec. 23, the Iranian government renewed an earlier invitation to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), asking nuclear inspectors to visit Iran as soon as possible. The invitation was apparently designed to lessen the impact of a November IAEA report on Iran's nuclear activities. The IAEA report suggested for the first time that Iran was using the cover of a peaceful nuclear program to produce atomic weaponry, though the U.N. nuclear watchdog did not conclude that Tehran is currently attempting to develop a nuclear weapon. As always, Iran dismissed the findings in the IAEA report as fabrication by Western countries, and insisted the country's nuclear activities were purely for peaceful purposes. Undoubtedly, Iran is trying to allay the international community's suspicions and worries about its nuclear program. However, a few stop-gap measures would help much in efforts to resolve this lingering, hot-button issue. Would war become a reality one day? Some people have cried wolf from time to time in the past. However, to prevent the worst-case scenario from occurring, greater sincerity and flexibility are required from all parties concerned.