Sensex's revival hinges on rebound

For equity investors in India the spotlight will now shift to quarterly earnings, which would set the tone for a stock market that has been one of the worst performing among major bourses this year. The services sector that contributes more than half of the country's gross domestic product is widely expected to report robust revenue growth on rebounding technology spending in the US, the biggest market for India's high profile software services companies. Infosys Ltd, ranked second in the sector, will kick off the earnings parade on Tuesday and the focus will be on the Bengaluru-headquartered company's guidance for the coming quarter and for the full year. "Because market expectations have been running low after a series of top management changes, any positive surprise announcement on the outlook will be a huge boost," said equity strategist V. Rajagopal. Article continues below While Infosys' June quarter revenue is expected to climb 4-5 per cent in dollar terms from January-March on the back of stronger demand for outsourcing, profit margins could be dented by a jump in costs. Expectations from TCS Bigger rival Tata Consultancy Services should report on Thursday a 5-6 per cent sequential rise in revenue, but the stock has already surged too far and could face profit-taking. "Without significantly beating our six per cent quarter-on-quarter expectation for revenue growth and visibility of material pricing momentum, we believe the stock might start to underperform on already high street expectation," Nomura analysts wrote in a report. The top-30 Sensex has risen 5.5 per cent over the past three weeks, powered by foreign portfolio inflows of nearly $2.5 billion (Dh9.1 billion) reflecting a revival in risk-taking as the European debt crisis eased. Still, the widely tracked benchmark is down eight per cent since the end of 2010, and the outlook for other sectors such as construction, cement, steel and automobiles is far from soothing. Large infrastructure projects to build power plants, townships, roads, railways and irrigation have all hit a dead-end thanks to delays in decision-making by the government or regulatory bodies. This followed a spate of political corruption scandals which led to the arrest and detention of several high-ranking officials, lawmakers and corporate bosses over the past nine months. Last week, a second minister was forced to resign from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's cabinet after the Central Bureau of Investigation named him in a preliminary court filing. "The government has been mostly rudderless for a long, long time," said a money manager at one foreign fund. "The cookie could crumble if the situation drags on." To stem the rot and pep up the ruling coalition's image, Singh has been planning to reshuffle his cabinet and jump-start stalled reforms. Until this happens and approvals for projects are fast-tracked, a slowdown in economic growth could cause greater harm. Large order inflows for construction companies covered by brokerage Sharekhan Ltd. slumped 40 per cent in the June quarter from the preceding three months to Rs395 billion (Dh32.6 billion). Larsen & Toubro, the country's biggest construction and engineering conglomerate, was the sole exception, the brokerage said in a report. Steep increases in interest rates by the central bank and higher commodity prices have also combined to push up costs and hurt margins. May industrial output and June inflation data due this week would also be on the radar of investors. The data will have a bearing on the Reserve Bank of India's decision at a scheduled policy meeting on July 26. The central bank has raised rates by 275 basis points over the past 15 months to fight price pressures and more increases are expected.