That’s why Assad crosses the red lines

 Even after a death toll of 70,000 people, the loss of large areas of his state, and after his prime minister fell victim to an attempted assassination, President Assad would not change his policy. He will never do so unless he loses someone or is himself the object of an assassination attempt.” This above is a sound statement made by one politician, since many people underestimated his maneuvering capabilities. Having followed him for a long time, I believe he is more dangerous than his forces and security agencies; and as formidable as they are. The most dangerous aspect of Assad’s character is Assad himself. Yet he suggests to his visitors that he is helpless, powerless and cannot even decide what to have for breakfast tomorrow. His true character can be known from 12 years of terror and brinkmanship. With the exception of his current crisis, he got away with all his adventures and crimes. Even if he loses his fateful Damascus battle today, I am afraid that he would somehow still survive as the head of a state and remain a thorn in the region’s side. We keep saying that Assad is a puppet in the hands of Iranians. We must admit, however, that it is him running the show. He is using the Iranians, Hezbollah and Russia for self-preservation. Of course, they are accomplices in his war and crimes, but they are helping him in order to serve their purposes as well. His track record speaks of his obstinate character and his way of managing crises. He keeps doing the same thing over and over again. One salient feature in his way of handling things is the way he deals with “red lines.” Contrary to common understanding, they mean nothing to him, except that the game is under way. Take Lebanon for example. Eight years ago, he must have plotted to get rid of Rafik Al-Hariri, a prominent leader, as part of his plan to achieve political hegemony over Lebanon. He also got rid of all the forces that failed to abide by his orders. He started by killing Marwan Hamadah, a government minister and a Druze leader who was in the Hariri camp. It was a message to Hariri, who left Lebanon and came back only to vote in Parliament under pressure from Damascus. Yet Assad killed him. When Assad killed Hariri in broad daylight, he crossed what many viewed as a red line. After international outrage, he withdrew his forces from Lebanon in compliance with UN Security Council resolutions. He gave signals that he wanted reconciliation. Every time he crosses a red line, he gives assurance that he is a head of state who observes international norms of conduct. Yet undercover, he acts like a mob boss. He gave world politicians many promises, then he physically liquidated his Lebanese opponents regardless of whether they were Christian or Muslim leaders or military personnel or media personalities. He even killed George Hawi out of spite because he publicly denounced him on TV. Every time he assassinated a public figure, he would suggest that he was worried and wanted reconciliation, only to assassinate another figure. Between 2005 and 2007, he killed more than 20 leaders and got away with each crime every time. Recently, he resorted to his assassination policy once again, killing Wisam Al Hassan, chief of Lebanese security, probably because he had connections with the Syrian revolution. Another case in point is that he orchestrated the kidnapping of Shalit, the Israeli soldier, in Gaza. He then orchestrated a Hezbollah attack on a military patrol behind the Lebanese–Israeli border. In terms of the balance of relations with Israel, that was a red line, but he relied on Iran and signed a common defense treaty with the Islamic Republic. Israel found it sufficient to attack and demolish Lebanon and Gaza. He used to suggest that he was willing to negotiate, but on the other hand, obstructs any solution. When Omar Sulaiman, the then chief of Egyptian intelligence, told him that he managed to reach a deal through which Israel would release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners of war in return for the release of Shalit, and that Khalid Meshaal, the Hamas chief, gave his OK to the deal, Assad went berserk and retorted that Meshaal had no power and could extend no promises, thereby ruining the deal. Shalit’s case remained stale until 2 years ago, when the Syrian revolution took its toll on him and he agreed to release him in October 2011. Assad, like Iran’s rulers, uses the Palestinian cause as a means to an end, with absolute disregard for the interests of other people. The third instance is the beginning of the Syrian revolt. Two years ago, he used to shake hands with emissaries, promising them what they wanted to hear, while on the other hand slaughtering people, such as the gruesome killing of the 13-year-old boy, Hamzah Al Khatib. The character of the dictator of Damascus betrays him. He believes he can escape any crisis. Like all despots and power-hungry rulers, he must think he has miraculous powers. I fear, therefore, that he will not hesitate to use chemical weapons and cause the suffocation of 100,000 people. After all, he has tried them in small doses in the past few months. Yet he thinks he was able to fool the world by using the Russians to abort a UN resolution. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.